By Magnus Onyibe

The decision by ThisDay newspaper and Arise News to name President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as their Man of the Year is a fitting recognition of his journey as Nigeria’s president over the past 19 months, starting from May 29, 2023.

Tinubu’s presidency has been marked by ambitious socioeconomic reforms, most notably the removal of petrol subsidies and the unification of Nigeria’s multiple exchange rates. The elimination of fuel subsidies caused an unprecedented surge in the cost of living, given the pivotal role petrol plays in transportation and the daily lives of Nigerians. Meanwhile, the exchange rate unification led to a significant naira devaluation—over 50%—exacerbating inflation in an import-dependent economy like Nigeria.

Undoubtedly, these 19 months have been challenging for Nigerians. However, Tinubu and his economic team have framed these reforms as a necessary foundation for correcting long-standing structural imbalances. For decades, Nigeria prioritized subsidizing consumption—such as petrol prices and the naira’s artificial strength—over investing in critical infrastructure like roads, airports, railways, healthcare, schools, and electricity, which remain in dire need of improvement.

The current hardships, while severe, are viewed as temporary disruptions. Once these structural imbalances are corrected, the Nigerian economy is expected to recover and thrive. The effects of Tinubu’s reforms are thus twofold: while they have caused significant short-term pain, they also pave the way for an economic resurgence, which appears to be gradually unfolding.

Hardships and Emerging Gains

It is undeniable that, 19 months into Tinubu’s administration, Nigeria is far from achieving stability, let alone prosperity. Yet, there are signs that the worst may be over. For instance, the spike in the cost of goods and services following subsidy removal seems to have peaked, with petrol prices falling below ₦1,000 per liter after exceeding that threshold. Similarly, the exchange rate, which had soared to ₦1,750/$1, has dropped to around ₦1,500–₦1,600, with potential for further improvement if reform policies remain consistent.

While the prices of goods and services are still higher than pre-Tinubu levels, there is growing evidence that the cost-of-living crisis is gradually easing. Critics may argue that the reforms have come at an enormous cost, citing inflation at nearly 35% and an unemployment rate of 73.2% to population in early 2024. However, the downward trend in petrol prices and exchange rates—key drivers of living costs—offers some hope for relief.

In summary, while the journey remains arduous, the early signs of recovery suggest that Tinubu’s reforms may eventually deliver the economic revival they promise. For now, the hardship persists, but the foundations for a more sustainable economy appear to be taking shape.

Although prices have not returned to pre-reform levels, they are undeniably dropping, albeit at a slower pace than the initial surge. This can be observed in the declining cost of petrol and the naira’s improved performance against foreign currencies.

The reduction in the cost of living, which had reached a crisis level, is largely attributed to the commencement of local refining by the Dangote Refinery. By refining crude oil into products such as Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), diesel, and jet fuel, the refinery has boosted local supply at a reduced cost. While prices are still above pre-subsidy removal levels, this development has multiple benefits, including job creation—both directly through refinery staff and indirectly through distributors.

In addition, the reactivation of the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries has further increased petrol supply in the market while creating more jobs. These efforts are complemented by several interventions from the Tinubu administration, such as the planned injection of $75 billion by the end of 2024 (rising to $250 billion by 2027) and the establishment of a presidential task force on Compressed Natural Gas (CNG). The CNG initiative seeks to provide an alternative to petrol for transportation and logistics while deploying CNG-powered mass transit buses at both federal and state levels to alleviate the burden on the masses, especially public sector workers.

Another significant intervention is the increase in the national minimum wage from ₦30,000 to ₦70,000, representing more than a 100% rise. While not all 36 states have adopted the new wage, several are paying even higher rates, such as ₦85,000. This increase is expected to improve the lives of workers who were hit hard by the sudden removal of petrol and naira subsidies, which had previously created an illusion of economic stability. Tinubu inherited an economy in critical condition, likened to a patient in an Intensive Care Unit (ICU).

Beyond workers’ welfare, the government has stated that it has also distributed over ₦24 billion through conditional cash transfers to more than 991,261 vulnerable households across the country. Despite these efforts to ease the unintended hardships caused by the reforms, inflation and unemployment rates have yet to fully reflect the strides being made to address these challenges.

On a personal note, long before ThisDay newspaper named Tinubu as Man of the Year 2024, I predicted his rise to the presidency in my book “Becoming President of Nigeria: A Citizen’s Guide,” published in May 2022—well before he won the APC primaries. Using trend analysis, I forecasted that Tinubu would secure victory after a decisive contest mainly against the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

While others doubted his chances, I remained consistent in tracking Tinubu’s political trajectory. It was clear to me that, despite all odds, he would win the 2023 elections and initiate reforms to transform Nigeria. This prediction, made two years in advance, was not a claim to divine foresight but rather an informed analysis of political trends.

The biblical verse Jeremiah 1:5 states, “Before I formed you in the womb, I knew you; before you were born, I sanctified you; and I ordained you a prophet to the nations.” This scripture has led some commentators to view President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as a product of destiny. However, if he is indeed divinely appointed, why has his leadership brought so much pain to Nigerians who have endured prolonged hardships?

A plausible explanation is that significant socioeconomic transformations often require a period of struggle, akin to a wilderness experience. Even the United States endured the Great Depression of 1933-1935, marked by severe economic challenges. Americans bore the scars of that period until the nation was revitalized under the visionary leadership of Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR).

This historical comparison frames the current Nigerian experience as part of a larger struggle for socioeconomic liberation. While some may question the biblical reference in analyzing Tinubu’s presidency, given his Muslim faith, the complexity of his persona adds layers to his leadership. For instance, his wife, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, is a Christian pastor, a fact that highlights the inclusivity of his administration. This inclusiveness was recently acknowledged by the Northern Christian Association of Nigeria, which initially opposed the Muslim-Muslim ticket of Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima. During a meeting in Kaduna, Rev. Yakubu Pam stated, “For me, the most important thing is a government that is inclusive, and as far as they have done the Muslim-Muslim ticket, we have also seen inclusiveness.”

Remarkably, ThisDay newspaper, which named Tinubu its 2024 Man of the Year, initially posed a significant obstacle to his presidential ambition. Tinubu had refused invitations for interviews and public debates organized by ThisDay and its sister platform, Arise News. The eventual reconciliation between Tinubu and the media group lends authenticity to the award. In their citation, ThisDay editors highlighted Tinubu’s “unwavering resolve and bold reforms aimed at transforming Nigeria.” They praised his decisions to remove fuel subsidies, float the naira, and push for financial autonomy at the local government level, despite the hardships these reforms have caused.

While his tax reforms and policies have sparked controversy, Tinubu’s leadership as ECOWAS chairman, coupled with his diplomatic efforts to ensure regional stability, reflects his commitment to transformative governance. The editors acknowledged that while his reforms require more inclusive execution, his courage and resilience have positioned him as a consequential leader.

I align with ThisDay’s assessment of Tinubu’s reform agenda. His policies are uprooting entrenched structures that have long hindered Nigeria’s economic growth, a fact that bolsters my confidence in the title of this intervention: “Tinubu’s Economic Resurgimiento: The Best Is In Front of Us.”

Even international observers, such as the outgoing Spanish Ambassador to Nigeria, Juan Sell, echo this sentiment. During his farewell event in Abuja, he remarked, “Nigeria, what a potential! You own the future. It is only a matter of bringing that future to the present.” He urged Nigerians to channel their resilience into a collective commitment to build the nation.

This external validation, alongside Tinubu’s reform initiatives, strengthens my belief that Nigeria is poised for growth and prosperity. However, this requires Nigerians to demonstrate resilience and patience in navigating the current hardships.

Historically, I have supported bold reforms, such as General Ibrahim Babangida’s Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) in 1984/85. If Babangida had pursued his policies with the same determination Tinubu is showing now, Nigeria might already be counted among the world’s most prosperous nations.

That said, the impact of Tinubu’s reforms remains underappreciated by many Nigerians, as reflected in his low job approval ratings. However, history has shown that transformative policies often take time to yield results. The best is yet to come, and Nigerians must remain steadfast in their pursuit of collective progress.

Rather than highlighting the positive aspects of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s policies, much of the media narrative has focused on their negative fallout. This may be due to his media team’s inability to effectively communicate his vision with the vigor and creativity required. Additionally, the piecemeal implementation of Tinubu’s policies, as noted by many analysts, has made it difficult for the broader public to grasp their potential benefits.

For instance, when I argued in an earlier piece that the Nigerian economy appeared to be stabilizing, some critics dismissed my observations outright. Yet, their perspective began to shift as petrol prices started to decline. While this reduction has not yet translated into a drop in inflation, there is optimism that over time, the combined effects of lower petrol prices and naira stabilization will positively impact the cost of goods and services.

In December, we saw a boost in diaspora investments as a result of the naira’s devaluation, demonstrated by the heightened economic activity during “Detty December.” A friend in the U.S., for example, recently purchased a four-bedroom maisonette in Parkview Estate, Ikoyi, Lagos, for $200,000—an amount equivalent to about ₦320 million six months ago. For a U.S.-based professional, $200,000 may not be much, but in Nigeria, it afforded him a luxury property in an exclusive area. This opportunity arose largely due to Tinubu’s decision to float the naira, a move that has attracted diaspora investments back home.

Unfortunately, such positive narratives are rarely emphasized. This is in stark contrast to the approach during General Ibrahim Babangida’s administration when the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP), though equally tough on the masses, was communicated effectively through the leadership of Prof. Jerry Gana. Under Gana’s guidance, Nigerians were convinced to accept SAP as a necessary alternative to International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans with harsh conditions. However, Babangida ultimately succumbed to public pressure, reversed some reforms, and stepped aside without fully implementing his economic vision.

Tinubu, on the other hand, has shown remarkable determination. Though a civilian, his resolve rivals that of military leaders like Babangida and Buhari, as he presses forward with critical reforms such as the removal of fuel subsidies, naira devaluation, and local government financial autonomy. With upcoming tax reforms in the works, Tinubu is on the verge of achieving a comprehensive policy overhaul that could reshape Nigeria’s economic future.

Unlike previous administrations, Tinubu has made these bold moves without resorting to costly national conferences, as was done in 1994/5 under Gen. Sanni Abacha’s watch as military head of state and Goodluck Jonathan in 2014. Yet, if a survey were conducted today, public sentiment about his leadership would likely lean negative, as Nigerians are currently bearing the brunt of these reforms. However, I believe that in five months, when Tinubu’s government reaches its 24-month milestone, the fruits of his policies will start to materialize.

One reform with long-term potential is the National Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), which aims to democratize access to higher education through interest-free loans. Though its full benefits may take a decade or more to become evident, this initiative could produce a wave of highly educated professionals, including doctors, scientists, and engineers, who would bolster Nigeria’s global competitiveness—similar to India’s experience.

Additionally, the Supreme Court’s recent ruling granting financial autonomy to local governments is expected to revitalize Nigeria’s rural areas. By ensuring that funds from the Federation Account go directly to local governments, this reform will address urban-rural migration, enabling rural communities to become economically vibrant once again. It will also make the case for state police easier with the LGAs contributing to the funding of the much tauted state police.

The ongoing tax reforms, particularly those related to Value Added Tax (VAT), are also poised to empower state governments by allowing them to retain a significant share of internally generated revenue. This shift will likely make states more entrepreneurial, fostering competition and innovation at the subnational level. In the future, attributes such as business acumen may become essential for governorship candidates.

Another promising initiative is the Credit Corp policy, designed to boost consumer purchasing power by providing credit for goods and services, such as vehicles and renewable energy solutions like solar panels. By enhancing consumer spending, the policy is expected to stimulate production, create jobs, and improve the overall standard of living.

In conclusion, the transformative reforms spearheaded by Tinubu lay the foundation for a brighter future, despite the current hardships. The administration must work diligently to communicate this vision, persuading Nigerians that the sacrifices they are making today will yield long-term benefits. It is this optimism that underpins my belief that “The Best Is in Front of Us.”

Magnus Onyibe

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